National news and local views for the week ending Friday, October 4, 2024

National Real Estate News Inventory keeps building The nation’s active inventory (listed homes excluding those already under contract) rose 3.5% month-over-month (+34% year-over-year) to 941,000. That’s the highest inventory figure since January 2020, but it's still 23% below September 2019 (pre-COVID). That said, 8 states (TN, ID, FL, TX etc.) now have inventory levels that are HIGHER than pre-COVID, which could put pressure on prices there. [Source: Realtor.com] Stay or jump ship? The incredibly tight job market during the pandemic made it very lucrative for employees to change companies. The graph above shows the premium (higher annual wage growth) generated by jumping ship versus staying. But that premium has declined massively lately, as companies have reduced hiring plans and the unemployment rate has risen. [Source: ADP] Rates drift higher Average 30-yr mortgage rates have increased 14 bps (0.14%) since September 17, the day before the Fed's big 50 basis point (0.5%) rate cut. Why? First, a lot of good news had already been “priced in” before the Fed decision. Second, since then, the economic and jobs data has been admittedly mixed. The market now expects a further 25 basis point cut on Nov 7. [Source: Mortgage News Daily, CME] Here you can enhance your area’s housing market data with your own insights and commentary! Area Median Price Active Listings New Listings - 5 days Median Days on Market Mesa, AZ $500,000 0% 1183 0.2% 118 38 -0.2% Gilbert, AZ $639,000 0% 644 0.1% 66 41 -0.2% Queen Creek, AZ $700,000 0% 631 1% 34 63 -0.1% Chandler, AZ $599,000 0% 516 0% 63 36 -0.2% Local Market Trends (/) from Sep. to Oct. 2024.   Lorana Ellard Real Broker License #SA684219000  

National news and local views for the week ending Friday, September 27, 2024

National Real Estate News Price growth eases In July, the Case-Shiller national home price index rose just 0.2% month-over-month, while the similarly-constructed FHFA price index posted an even smaller 0.1% MoM increase. After 4 years and 47% cumulative home price growth, supply and demand is becoming more balanced. But as the bar chart above shows, we're still seeing very strong YoY price growth from certain cities. [Source: S&P DJI] Sales slow to react The NAR’s Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI, which measures signed contracts for existing homes) rose just 0.6% MoM in August to 70.6. Mortgage rates have fallen 130 bps (1.3%) in the last 5 months, but the PHSI has barely budged. Consider this: the PHSI today is 4% BELOW where it was in October 2023 - when 30-yr mortgage rates were nearly 2% higher at 8%! [Source: NAR] Best week to buy a home? According to Realtor.com, the week of Sep 29-Oct 5 offers the best combination of rising inventory (more homes to choose from) and reduced competition (fewer bidding wars). In other words, a better chance to find a home you love at a (more) reasonable price. Serendipitously, mortgage rates have dropped just in time. [Source: Realtor.com, Mortgage News Daily] Local Market Trends Here you can enhance your area’s housing market data with your own insights and commentary! Area Median Price Active Listings New Listings - 5 days Median Days on Market Mesa, AZ $509,000 0% 1169 0.3% 115 39 -0.2% Gilbert, AZ $632,286 0% 629 0.2% 55 42 -0.2% Chandler, AZ $599,000 0% 508 0.1% 52 39 -0.1% Queen Creek, AZ $699,997 0% 640 1.1% 38 67 0% Local Market Trends (/) from Aug. to Sep. 2024. Lorana Ellard Real Broker License #SA684219000   Questions about these articles or the state of your local market? Get in touch! 623-400-6657azhomerealestate1@gm

National news and local views Friday, September 20, 2024

National Real Estate News Fed makes big rate cut! At its September 18 meeting, the Federal Reserve chose to cut short-term interest rates by 50 basis points (that's 0.5% or half a percent) from 5.5% --> 5.0%. That's an aggressive start to the new easing cycle, which on Fed member forecasts could see the Fed Funds Rate drop to 4.4% by end-2024 and 3.4% by end-2025. [Source: Federal Reserve] Mortgage rates steady Average 30-yr mortgage rates had already dropped from 7.43% to 6.14% BEFORE the Fed rate decision. That's why the actual Fed rate cut had a limited impact on mortgage rates. But not to worry. As the Fed rate cut cycle continues, mortgage rates will follow the Fed Funds Rate lower. The speed and frequency of future rate cuts will continue to depend on inflation and jobs data. [Source: Mortgage News Daily] Here come the condos In August new home permits (+5%), starts (+10%) and completions (+9%) all had a nice bounce. During COVID, we saw multifamily unit construction ramp to near record levels. Well, those apartments and condos are now being delivered at a pace we haven't seen since 1975! And 60% of those are being built in the South (includes TX & FL), which could continue to put pressure on rental rates there. [Source: Census Bureau] Local Market Trends Here you can enhance your area’s housing market data with your own insights and commentary! Area Median Price Active Listings New Listings - 5 days Median Days on Market Gilbert, AZ $640,000 0% 619 0.2% 62 44 -0.1% Chandler, AZ $598,000 0% 493 0.1% 53 41 -0.1% Queen Creek, AZ $699,999 0% 621 1% 68 68 0.1% Mesa, AZ $500,000 0% 1135 0.2% 98 40 -0.2% Local Market Trends (/) from Aug. to Sep. 2024.   Lorana Ellard Real Broker License #SA684219000   Questions about these articles or the state of your local market? Get in touch! 623-400-6657azhomerealestate1@gmail.com ©ListReports 2024, all rights reserved. This information is from third-party sources and its accuracy cannot be guaranteed.