National news and local views for the week ending Friday, October 18, 2024

National Real Estate News CPI came in a bit hot September “headline” CPI eased to +2.4% YoY (from +2.5% YoY in August), but “core” CPI ROSE to +3.3% YoY (from +3.2% YoY in August). Both figures were 0.1% above expectations. While this data release wasn't a disaster by any stretch, it didn't help things either - especially following the much stronger than expected BLS jobs figure out the prior week. [Source: BLS] Rates in the high sixes Average 30-yr mortgage rates were steady at around 6.60% this week, having jumped massively over the prior two weeks due to the combination of the stronger September jobs report and (slightly) hotter September CPI inflation figure. That said, it's important to remember that 1 year ago, rates peaked at just over 8%! [Source: Mortgage News Daily] Builders getting bullish The National Association of Homebuilders confidence index rose 2 points to 43. (A figure >50 signifies a bullish/expansionary new home sales environment.) That's the second-straight month of index improvement, and it's been driven by - you guessed it - lower mortgage rates over the past 4 months. [Source: NAHB] Local Market Trends- Here you can enhance your area’s housing market data with your own insights and commentary! Area Median Price Active Listings New Listings - 5 days Median Days on Market Mesa, AZ $499,999 0% 1252 0.3% 105 39 -0.2% Gilbert, AZ $639,000 0% 675 0.2% 62 42 -0.2% Chandler, AZ $595,000 0% 530 0% 53 35 -0.2% Queen Creek, AZ $699,995 0% 621 1% 33 63 -0.1% Local Market Trends (/) from Sep. to Oct. 2024.   Lorana Ellard Real Broker License #SA684219000  

National news and local views for the week ending Friday, October 11, 2024

National Real Estate News A sudden surge in jobs The US added 254,000 jobs in September, far above expectations and a big jump from the roughly 150,000 jobs added in each of the prior two months. The unemployment rate, meanwhile, dropped to 4.1% (from 4.2% in August). This boosted "soft landing" hopes but hit the bond market hard. [Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics] Mortgage rates jump The much stronger-than-expected September jobs figure had the market reevaluating future rate cut expectations. The average rate on 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages jumped to 6.62% on Thursday and is now nearly 50 basis points (half a percentage point) above where it was BEFORE the Fed cut rates. [Source: Mortgage News Daily] Buyer sentiment improves Every month, Fannie Mae surveys consumers about their views on the economy and the housing market. In September, optimism about lower rates helped FNMA's Home Purchase Sentiment Index rise 1.8 points to 73.9, the highest level since February 2022. We've been seeing a number of 'glimmers of hope' like this lately. Now if only rates can STAY down for long enough we could finally get a recovery in transaction volumes! Local Market Trends Here you can enhance your area’s housing market data with your own insights and commentary! Area Median Price Active Listings New Listings - 5 days Median Days on Market Mesa, AZ $507,490 0% 1252 0.3% 140 38 -0.2% Gilbert, AZ $639,900 0% 659 0.2% 67 43 -0.2% Chandler, AZ $594,900 0% 537 0.1% 72 35 -0.2% Queen Creek, AZ $700,000 0% 634 1% 33 64 -0.1% Local Market Trends (/) from Sep. to Oct. 2024. Lorana Ellard Real Broker License #SA684219000   Questions about these articles or the state of your local market? Get in touch! 623-400-6657azhomerealestate1@gmail.com ©ListReports 2024, all rights reserved. This information is from third-party sources and its accuracy cannot be guaranteed.

National news and local views for the week ending Friday, October 4, 2024

National Real Estate News Inventory keeps building The nation’s active inventory (listed homes excluding those already under contract) rose 3.5% month-over-month (+34% year-over-year) to 941,000. That’s the highest inventory figure since January 2020, but it's still 23% below September 2019 (pre-COVID). That said, 8 states (TN, ID, FL, TX etc.) now have inventory levels that are HIGHER than pre-COVID, which could put pressure on prices there. [Source: Realtor.com] Stay or jump ship? The incredibly tight job market during the pandemic made it very lucrative for employees to change companies. The graph above shows the premium (higher annual wage growth) generated by jumping ship versus staying. But that premium has declined massively lately, as companies have reduced hiring plans and the unemployment rate has risen. [Source: ADP] Rates drift higher Average 30-yr mortgage rates have increased 14 bps (0.14%) since September 17, the day before the Fed's big 50 basis point (0.5%) rate cut. Why? First, a lot of good news had already been “priced in” before the Fed decision. Second, since then, the economic and jobs data has been admittedly mixed. The market now expects a further 25 basis point cut on Nov 7. [Source: Mortgage News Daily, CME] Here you can enhance your area’s housing market data with your own insights and commentary! Area Median Price Active Listings New Listings - 5 days Median Days on Market Mesa, AZ $500,000 0% 1183 0.2% 118 38 -0.2% Gilbert, AZ $639,000 0% 644 0.1% 66 41 -0.2% Queen Creek, AZ $700,000 0% 631 1% 34 63 -0.1% Chandler, AZ $599,000 0% 516 0% 63 36 -0.2% Local Market Trends (/) from Sep. to Oct. 2024.   Lorana Ellard Real Broker License #SA684219000